Demographics in India: “We have naive assumptions”

Posted On: August 9, 2024

Photo credit, Getty Images

Caption, As India is about to become the most populous country in the world, no one knows exactly how many people live there

Author, Ricardo Senra
Role, Correspondent for the world population
Twitter, @ricksenra
20 April 2023

An unprecedented blackout of official Indian government data is preventing United Nations demographers from announcing with certainty when the country will overtake China as home to the world's largest population.

This demographic milestone for India was scheduled to be announced on April 14, 2023, but as the world waited for confirmation last Friday, no official statement was made.

In an interview with the BBC, Patrick Gerland, head of the United Nations' Population Estimates and Prospects Division, said that figures on India's true population size were “naive assumptions based on fragmentary information.”

“We don’t have any real official data from India,” says the UN expert.

The Indian Home Ministry did not respond to BBC questions about the lack of current data.

Demographic Race

The population of India and China is estimated at 1.4 billion each, which means that one in three people in the world lives in India or China.

China has been the most populous country since records began 70 years ago. While institutes such as the World Population Review estimate that India's population has already surpassed China's this year, the United Nations population estimator is not so sure. “It happens… But the accuracy of the information available does not allow us to be that precise.”

What we know for sure is that China's population began shrinking faster than expected last year and India's population is growing.

United Nations demographers estimate that the number will peak at 1.7 billion people in 2064, exceeding China's number by 50%.

The fact that India has the largest population in the world has a significant impact on India. But why can't we be sure when exactly this will happen?

For the first time in 140 years, the census was cancelled

The main reason for the UN expert's uncertainty is the lack of a new census in the country for the first time since 1881.

After 140 years of continuous census every 10 years, the 2021 census was cancelled due to Covid and postponed to 2022.

Busy street in New Delhi — Caption, Even after wars and famines, the census that takes place every ten years in India was not abolished.

Now it has been postponed again to 2024, a key election year in India when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third consecutive term in office. For some of his opponents, this could be the reason for these delays.

The census was never delayed, even after World Wars I and II or during the Great Famine of the 1870s.

Based on individual surveys of every household in the country, the census is the most reliable source of information not only on population size but also on employment, literacy, wealth, health, education and other important socio-cultural statistics.

Data is becoming an important source for evidence-based policy-making, whether in the need to build new hospitals and schools, in urban planning, in public budget decisions or in the determination of constituencies and parliamentary seats.

They also provide other governments, private companies, NGOs and scientists with a reliable picture of a country.

In a continental country like India, the census is an even more complex task, as up to three million trained enumerators must visit every household.

China conducted its 70th census in 2020 and has been publishing its results since 2021.

“Outdated” samples

In order not to rely on outdated census figures from 2011, UN demographers relied, among other things, on estimates from an annual sample survey conducted by the Indian government.

But this study is also not up to date.

“For the sample survey, we do not have complete data published by the Indian government since 2019. Therefore, we do not have actual official data from India for 2020, 2021 and 2022. What we have are basically assumptions.” “We did this at the United Nations based on the past and on various sources of information available up to 2019 to deduce what to expect,” says the UN expert.

Two men on scooters wearing protective masks — Caption, The impact of Covid on deaths and births in India has not been confirmed due to the lack of a national census.

To calculate a country's population, demographers use official figures on births, deaths and migration. “For India and China, it is essentially the number of births and deaths that contributes most to the evolution of the total population,” explains Mr Gerland.

But since there is no new census, no one can be sure what impact Covid will have on these numbers.

“As with all hypotheses, we may be right or wrong, especially given the different waves of the Covid pandemic. And since we don't yet have real data for this period, we have made rough approximations, naive assumptions based on fragmentary information.”

Mr Gerland adds that the exact point at which India will overtake China's population “could be this month, this year or it could already be here”.

The Indian government did not respond to a question about why the samples were not current.

Political motivation?

For the opposition, the reason for these delays in the census is to protect Prime Minister Modi from possible statistical damage after his second term.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — Caption, Opponents say delays in the census are aimed at protecting Prime Minister Modi from negative pre-election news.

“On important issues like employment, Covid deaths, etc., we have seen that the Modi government preferred to conceal critical data,” Pawan Khera, spokesman for the Congress party, was quoted as saying by Reuters.

The Indian government did not respond to requests for comment.

But recently, a spokesman for Mr Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party responded to this criticism: “I would like to know on what basis are you saying this. What is the social parameter on the basis of which our performance in nine years is worse than your 65 years of government?” he explained.

Without referring specifically to India, United Nations Director-General Patrick Gerland said that in general, the use of the census for “specific political purposes often provokes negative reactions to participation in the census.”

“The idea of a census is that the information collected is used for the common good and not to be used by one particular group against another. This creates many problems and prevents any significant results from being achieved.”