According to new estimates by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of world trade in goods is expected to grow by 10.8% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022. In March the WTO expected increases of 8% and 4% respectively.

“Given the magnitude of the slump in trade that accompanied the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when the volume of global trade in goods contracted by 5.3%, we can expect a significant recovery,” said WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo- Iweala at a press conference.

According to WTO economists, that growth is likely to slow as trade in goods returns to the long-term trend it had before the pandemic.

“Supply-side issues such as semiconductor shortages and port residues could strain supply chains and trade in some sectors, but are unlikely to have a major impact on trade. Global aggregates,” they also estimated.

In summary, according to the WTO, the current forecast is close to the bullish scenario of the most recent trade forecast, but the risks of the pessimistic scenario now outweigh the risks, particularly due to tensions in global supply chains and a possible economic resurgence. COVID-19. According to WTO economists, inflation peaks are also to be considered.

In addition to these risks, M^me Okonjo-Iweala is particularly concerned about the large differences in trade growth from region to region. The Middle East, South America and Africa in particular appear to be heading for the weakest recovery on the export side.

“The trade figures are the latest evidence that unfair access to vaccines is exacerbating economic disparities between regions,” said M^me Okonjo-Iweala.

Call for unity

More than 6 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been made and given worldwide, but to date, she complained, only 1.4% of people in low-income countries have been fully vaccinated against 58% in rich countries.

Before the twelfth WTO ministerial conference (November 30th to 3rd fair distribution ”.

“It is a necessity to sustain the global economic recovery. The vaccination policy is indeed a critical economic and trade policy, ”she added.

At the suggestion of India and South Africa, the WTO has been heavily debating an exemption from intellectual property rights for vaccines and other anti-COVID-19 treatments since 2020 in order to make them more accessible.

This principle, supported by the World Health Organization and NGOs, is rejected by the pharmaceutical giants and some European countries, who stress that production agreements between companies are possible and increasing, including in Africa.

The WTO chief admitted on Monday that it was “a difficult subject” but added: “We hope to be able to reach a reasonable compromise on the issue of intellectual property”.

“We hope that there will be a pragmatic solution that is acceptable to both sides.”

She stressed that in light of the ministerial agreements in several areas, WTO members were “working hard” to make progress or agreements in several areas, including subsidies to encourage overfishing, an issue that countries have been talking about for more than 20 years to discuss.