Prime Minister Narendra Modi's goal of making India a high-income country by 2047 is unattainable, but India must become an upper-middle-income country and a superpower by the middle of the century, Martin Wolf, chief economic commentator at the Financial Times, said on Friday.
Wolf also said that the obstacles to necessary progress in India lie largely in domestic institutions, politics and policy.
“Inclusive and rapid growth on the desired scale requires sustained openness, but also major investments in physical and human capital. “Openness remains an aid to economic progress,” he added.
In a talk organized by CUTS titled “What will it take for India to become a developed country by 2047?” Wolf said, “What is Mr Modi's plan? Does it make sense or even is it feasible for him to make India a high-income country by 2047? Probably not. However, India will most likely become a superpower by the middle of this century. Size matters!”
Referring to Prime Minister Modi's goal of making India a developed country by 2047, Wolf said India wants to become a high-income country, but that is unattainable. “However, India should be an upper middle-income country by then. India too will become a superpower,” he said.
He pointed out that today's slow-growing, shock-prone and fragile world will make this improvement difficult. “India must work hard to use its influence to shape the world in a positive direction. “India must also shape itself in such a way that it can take advantage of the opportunities that come its way,” he said. In his Independence Day 2023 speech, Prime Minister Modi said that India will be a developed country by 2047 as the country celebrates 100 years of independence.
While pointing out that India can continue to capitalize on global opportunities, Wolf said India can build fruitful and productive economic relationships with all parties. “If India tries, it can partially replace China as a competitive global supplier of goods and services. India can become a magnet for foreign direct investment. India can (and must) have a positive influence on global discussions,” he said.
Wolf stressed that India must have a positive influence on global discussions. He said India has significant advantages in its efforts to shape the world in its favour, adding that India is clearly a “plus one” in a world dominated by “China plus one”, and even more so in a world dominated by “any country other than China”.
He said India could be tempted by aggressive industrial policies and self-sufficiency, but must resist the temptation. “Today, opportunities increasingly lie in the services sector, where India has a strong comparative advantage. “India is big enough to shape the world while trying to transform the domestic economy,” he said.
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