GLASGOW, Scotland – With the pledges for a United Nations climate change conference, the world could withdraw a little from gloomy scenarios of future global warming, according to two new preliminary scientific analyzes on Thursday.

The two reports – one from the International Energy Agency and the other from Australian scientists – focused on optimistic scenarios. If all goes well, they said, recent measures will reduce two or three tenths of a degree Celsius (0.3 to 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit) from the projections made in mid-October.

Instead of a warming of 2.1 degrees Celsius (3.8 Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, the analyzes predict a warming of 1.8 (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) or 1.9 degrees (3.4 degrees Fahrenheit).

Still, both projections take the world a long way from the pre-industrial warming 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) that are the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The planet has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit).

The UN was planning to make an announcement at the climate negotiations on Friday afternoon about the extent to which “the measures previously announced in Glasgow have helped to bend the curve”.

“We now have a slightly more positive outlook for the future,” said Melbourne University climate scientist Malte Meinshausen, whose non-peer-reviewed flash analysis sees warming to 1.9 degrees, mainly due to late long-term commitments India and China.

“It’s still a long way from 1.5 degrees. We know that some of the ecosystems will suffer and we will, for example, notice the coral reefs and the Great Barrier Reef here in Australia (die) at these temperatures, ”Meinshausen said in an interview. “It only scratches below two degrees. So there is still a lot to do. “

The Energy Agency’s analysis took into account India’s announcement of short-term carbon dioxide emission limits and a net-zero commitment by 2070 on Monday, as well as commitments from more than 100 countries on Tuesday to reduce the powerful greenhouse gas methane. The intergovernmental agency said it was the first time projections fell below 2 degrees Celsius – a long-standing threshold for tipping points that some scientists say could bring even more dangerous and potentially uncontrolled warming.

“If all of these commitments were implemented, the temperature rise could be limited to 1.8 degrees Celsius. I think this is a very, very celebrated achievement, ”said agency chief Fatih Birol at the climate negotiations in Glasgow called COP26. “Congratulations.”

The director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Johan Rockstrom, who was not involved in either research, said that small differences in this temperature level are important: “Every tenth of a degree counts because it keeps getting worse.”

Both teams emphasize that their projections are based on the most optimistic scenarios emerging from mid-century – or in the case of India’s 2070 – commitments of net zero emissions that are far from being written into plans or actions .

Scenarios that relate only to short-term commitments and not net-zero commitments assume warming to 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit). As a result, some outsiders say that the new forecasts should be treated with caution.

“This optimistic view must be complemented by the short-term view, which points in the opposite direction,” said New Climate Institute scientist Niklas Hohne, who is tracking emissions commitments for the Climate Action Tracker, which will have its own estimates in a few days.

Mohamed Adow, director of the Nairobi-based think tank Power Shift Africa and a seasoned observer of the climate talks, said it was too early to trust Glasgow’s promise: speed during a COP meeting. “

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Associated Press reporter Frank Jordans contributed from Glasgow.

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Further information on AP climate protection: https://apnews.com/hub/climate.

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter: @borenbears.

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