IPL Playoffs 2022: CSK’s playoff chances now at just over 3%, KKR’s chances drop – all playoff chances in 11 points | Cricket News

With 15 games remaining in the league phase of IPL 2022 as of Monday 9th May, up to 32,768 possible combinations of outcomes remain. Sunday’s two games brought that number down from a staggering 1,31,072.
TOI looked at each of these possibilities to calculate each team’s odds of making the playoffs. On Monday morning, May 9th, they looked like this:
*MI is definitely out of the running for a playoff spot. The best it can hope for is fifth place
*After Sunday’s win over DC, CSK still have a 3.4% chance of finishing fourth or even third overall if they win their three remaining games
* However, CSK’s chances of joint third place are only 0.3% and are 14 points in a tie between four and seven teams
* KKR’s chances of finishing in the top four fell slightly after Sunday’s games and now stand at 2.9%. You only have a 0.2% chance of making it to third place in a tie between four and seven teams
* PBKS has a 25% chance of finishing fourth, third, or even second overall, but can no longer hope for the top of the points table
*SRH saw their odds of finishing in the top four on points drop precipitously from 42.5% to 21.2% after Sunday’s loss. DC’s loss to CSK means his chances have dropped from 41.4% to 23%. Neither team can lead the league this time
* The difference in the two teams’ odds despite having the same points and the same number of games is because of who they face in their remaining games and how that affects their final rankings
*RCB improved their chances of finishing in the top four on points from 63% to 89.6% with Sunday’s win over SRH
* Sunday’s results also improved RR’s already high odds of finishing in the top four from 93.8% to 95.9%. They can’t finish worse than sixth now, even if they lose all their remaining games
* GT and LSG, both in their first IPL seasons, are now certain to finish in the top four on points. Even if a side loses all remaining games, the worst thing they can do is finish fourth
* In short, you’re betting that LSG, GT, RR and RCB will make it to the playoffs with PBKS, DC and SRH in that order and have a relatively slim chance of edging out RR or RCB
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 32,768 current possible outcome combinations with 15 games remaining. We assumed that each game had an equal chance of winning for both sides. We then looked at how many of the combinations got each team into one of the top four spots on points. That gives us our probability number. To take a concrete example: Of the 32,768 possible result combinations, RR ranks first to fourth in points in 31,424 combinations. This corresponds to a probability of 95.9%. We do not consider net run rates or “no results” as it is impossible to predict in advance.

Come back for our updated Tuesday morning (May 10) predictions, which take into account the results of Monday’s game.

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