TOI looked at each of these possibilities to calculate the odds of each team making the playoffs. As of Saturday morning, May 14, MI and CSK are the two teams unable to qualify for the playoffs.
With the win on Friday, PBKS significantly improved their chances of making the playoffs. Of all the remaining teams battling for a place in the top 4, KKR has the bleakest chance of qualifying for the next round. So far, GT is the only team that has officially qualified for the playoffs. This is what all the options look like at the moment:
1) MI is out of the bill for a playoff spot
2) CSK joined MI as the second team to be eliminated
3) KKR’s odds of fourth place have improved slightly to 9.4%. At most a tied third place with four to six teams or a tied fourth place with three to five participating teams
4) DC’s chances of finishing in the top four have improved to 46.9%, but the best it can hope for is a joint second place shared between three to five teams
5) PBKS’ chances of finishing in the top four have also improved to 46.9%, but like DC, they can no longer top the points table either
6) SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four have also improved to 28.1%, although they too cannot finish at the top after the league stage
7) RCB’s odds of making the top four have dropped to 77.3%. After Friday’s defeat, they can no longer lead the points table. At best, they can finish second – a place they could share with three to five teams
8th) RR has a 92.2 percent chance of finishing in the top four on points. But they can still drop to sixth if they lose their remaining games
9) LSG will now certainly finish in the top three on points in their first IPL season, but that doesn’t guarantee qualification as they will finish first with three teams, second with up to five teams, or third with up to four teams can
10) GT, also in their first IPL season, has ensured qualification and can do no worse than a three-way tie for the top spot where they finish third in net run rate
11) In short, you’re betting on GT, LSG, RR and RCB making it to the playoffs, with PBKS and DC having a relatively small but still realistic chance of knocking RR or RCB out of the playoff race. Anything else would be far-fetched.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 1,024 current possible combinations of outcomes with 10 games remaining. We assumed that each game had an equal chance of winning for both sides. Then we look at how many of the combinations got each team into one of the top four spots on points. That gives us our probability number. To cite a concrete example: Of the 1,024 possible result combinations, RR occupies first to fourth place in terms of points in 944 combinations. This corresponds to a probability of 92.2%. We do not consider net run rates or “no results” as it is impossible to predict in advance.
Come back for our updated Sunday morning (May 15) predictions, which take into account the outcome of Saturday’s game.
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