40 of the 56 league games of the IPL 2021 have now been completed. With 16 games remaining in the group stage, each game now affects not just the teams that play it but the rest of the game. SRH’s win on Monday, for example, helped increase their slim chances, but it was too good news for all other teams except RR.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman did the calculations to show each team’s chances of qualifying after Monday’s game, assuming the odds of winning or losing in each game are 50-50, which is admittedly a big assumption given the Shape of some teams is.
The analysis also ignores the net run rates as the current NRRs will most likely change significantly with four games remaining for each team.
Here are all the current playoff opportunities for all 8 teams, with 16 league games still to play:
1) CSK cannot finish under the joint 3rd place, as there can at best be two teams that exceed their current balance of 16 points. Your chances of reaching one of the first two places individually or together with other teams are 97%.
2) DC cannot finish tied for third place either. Your chances of finishing the league phase alone or tied in first or second place are only slightly lower at 95%.
3) RCB’s chances of finishing in the top four either individually or collectively have risen to 96%, but they could still finish in 7th place. Your chances of finishing in the top two places or getting one of them are a modest 27%.
4) The chances that KKR, currently in fourth place, will get one of the four qualifying places or will be tied, have improved slightly to 40%. The franchise has a less than 0.7% chance of making it in the top two.
5)Punjab Kings have moved up to fifth place and their chances of making it into the top 4 or hitting one of these slots have also increased slightly to 41%. You have a 1% chance of making it into the top two.
6) Losing RR on Monday means their chances of snagging or sharing one of the top four slots have dropped from 55% before this game to 41%. As with PBKS, your chances of making it into the top two are just under 1%.
7) MI is currently in seventh place, but tied with KKR, PBKS and RR. Like these three teams, MI has a 41% chance of finishing in the top four, either individually or in a tie. Again, like KKR, MI has a less than 0.7% chance of hitting the first two.
8th) SRH’s chances of getting in or getting one of those spots have doubled but still remain at a low 2.2%. The best it can hope for is a third place after the league phase and even that has a less than 0.1% chance.
9) In summary, it can be said that after the league phase, the league leader will definitely be one of CSK, DC or RCB. The probability that all three will qualify is 96%. Realistically, four teams (KKR, PBKS, RR and MI) are fighting for a place.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman did the calculations to show each team’s chances of qualifying after Monday’s game, assuming the odds of winning or losing in each game are 50-50, which is admittedly a big assumption given the Shape of some teams is.
The analysis also ignores the net run rates as the current NRRs will most likely change significantly with four games remaining for each team.
Here are all the current playoff opportunities for all 8 teams, with 16 league games still to play:
1) CSK cannot finish under the joint 3rd place, as there can at best be two teams that exceed their current balance of 16 points. Your chances of reaching one of the first two places individually or together with other teams are 97%.
2) DC cannot finish tied for third place either. Your chances of finishing the league phase alone or tied in first or second place are only slightly lower at 95%.
3) RCB’s chances of finishing in the top four either individually or collectively have risen to 96%, but they could still finish in 7th place. Your chances of finishing in the top two places or getting one of them are a modest 27%.
4) The chances that KKR, currently in fourth place, will get one of the four qualifying places or will be tied, have improved slightly to 40%. The franchise has a less than 0.7% chance of making it in the top two.
5)Punjab Kings have moved up to fifth place and their chances of making it into the top 4 or hitting one of these slots have also increased slightly to 41%. You have a 1% chance of making it into the top two.
6) Losing RR on Monday means their chances of snagging or sharing one of the top four slots have dropped from 55% before this game to 41%. As with PBKS, your chances of making it into the top two are just under 1%.
7) MI is currently in seventh place, but tied with KKR, PBKS and RR. Like these three teams, MI has a 41% chance of finishing in the top four, either individually or in a tie. Again, like KKR, MI has a less than 0.7% chance of hitting the first two.
8th) SRH’s chances of getting in or getting one of those spots have doubled but still remain at a low 2.2%. The best it can hope for is a third place after the league phase and even that has a less than 0.1% chance.
9) In summary, it can be said that after the league phase, the league leader will definitely be one of CSK, DC or RCB. The probability that all three will qualify is 96%. Realistically, four teams (KKR, PBKS, RR and MI) are fighting for a place.
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