39 of the 56 league games of the IPL 2021 have now been completed. Only two of the eight teams are now qualified and CSK and DC should occupy the top two spots after the league phase, with their final placement depending on which team wins more (both teams have 4 games left to play).
But mathematically, even a team like Sunrisers Hyderabad is still in the race for the four play-off places, although their chances of qualifying are just over 1%. In practical terms, we saw four teams competing for a place in the top four in the coming days.
Shankar Raghuraman from TOI did the calculations to show each team’s chances of qualifying after Sunday’s games, assuming that in any given game the odds of winning or losing are 50-50, which admittedly given the shape of some teams great assumption is.
The analysis also ignores the net run rates as the current NRRs will most likely change significantly with four to five games remaining for each team.
Here are all the playoff possibilities for all 8 teams according to the current status with 17 league games still outstanding:
1) Currently at the top of the table, CSK is sure to qualify and has a 96.7% chance of finishing in the top two places
2) DC tied with CSK but lower in net run rate may also qualify and have a 95% chance of finishing in the top two
3) RCB, currently in third place with 12 points, has a 94.9% chance of finishing in the top four either individually or together, but only a 26% chance of finishing in one of the top two
4) Aside from these three teams, no other team has a better chance of making it to the playoffs
5) KKR, currently the fourth-placed team, has a 36% chance of finishing in the top four either individually or together. It can’t get better than runner-up and its chances of doing so are only 0.7%
6) Like KKR, PK has a 36% chance of reaching the playoffs and cannot top the table. The chances of second place are only 0.9%
7) RR is currently in sixth place, but with the same points as KKR and PK with an extra game in hand, their chances of making the playoffs are better than even 55%. You can even top the table and have a 4% chance of landing in the first two slots
8th) MI are equal on points and games with KKR and PK and also have a 36% chance to qualify and no chance to top. As with these two teams, their chance of finishing in the top two is less than 1% at 0.7%.
9) In terms of arithmetic, SRH is still not out and the results on Sunday even increased their chances of finishing in the top four individually or collectively to 1.1%. But they can’t do better than third place and their chance of doing so is only 0.05%, or one in 2,000. If SRH loses to RR today, they will be out of the race for the playoffs for good.
10) For all practical purposes, qualifications for CSK, DC and RCB are assured (95% chance all three will make it) and what is up for grabs now is one of the top four slots
But mathematically, even a team like Sunrisers Hyderabad is still in the race for the four play-off places, although their chances of qualifying are just over 1%. In practical terms, we saw four teams competing for a place in the top four in the coming days.
Shankar Raghuraman from TOI did the calculations to show each team’s chances of qualifying after Sunday’s games, assuming that in any given game the odds of winning or losing are 50-50, which admittedly given the shape of some teams great assumption is.
The analysis also ignores the net run rates as the current NRRs will most likely change significantly with four to five games remaining for each team.
Here are all the playoff possibilities for all 8 teams according to the current status with 17 league games still outstanding:
1) Currently at the top of the table, CSK is sure to qualify and has a 96.7% chance of finishing in the top two places
2) DC tied with CSK but lower in net run rate may also qualify and have a 95% chance of finishing in the top two
3) RCB, currently in third place with 12 points, has a 94.9% chance of finishing in the top four either individually or together, but only a 26% chance of finishing in one of the top two
4) Aside from these three teams, no other team has a better chance of making it to the playoffs
5) KKR, currently the fourth-placed team, has a 36% chance of finishing in the top four either individually or together. It can’t get better than runner-up and its chances of doing so are only 0.7%
6) Like KKR, PK has a 36% chance of reaching the playoffs and cannot top the table. The chances of second place are only 0.9%
7) RR is currently in sixth place, but with the same points as KKR and PK with an extra game in hand, their chances of making the playoffs are better than even 55%. You can even top the table and have a 4% chance of landing in the first two slots
8th) MI are equal on points and games with KKR and PK and also have a 36% chance to qualify and no chance to top. As with these two teams, their chance of finishing in the top two is less than 1% at 0.7%.
9) In terms of arithmetic, SRH is still not out and the results on Sunday even increased their chances of finishing in the top four individually or collectively to 1.1%. But they can’t do better than third place and their chance of doing so is only 0.05%, or one in 2,000. If SRH loses to RR today, they will be out of the race for the playoffs for good.
10) For all practical purposes, qualifications for CSK, DC and RCB are assured (95% chance all three will make it) and what is up for grabs now is one of the top four slots
How were the playoff opportunities at the end of September 25th? Find outHERE.
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