With two more games to be played on Saturday, the number of league games remaining in the 2021 IPL has now dropped to 9 after playing 12 games each. All four of these teams are fighting for a playoff spot.
CSK and DC have secured qualifications, but their final placement has not yet been determined. Two more games will be played on Sunday and since three of the four teams tied with 10 points are in action on Sunday, it will be interesting to see how things develop after these two games.
Shankar Raghuraman from TOI did the calculations to show the probabilities of each team that can qualify after Saturday’s games, assuming that in any given game the odds of winning or losing are 50-50.
The analysis also ignores the net run rates as the current NRRs could change quite a bit with two to three games remaining for each team.
With 9 games remaining in the group stage, almost every game becomes a game or a game – not just for the players but for other teams in the league as well. For example, MI’s loss on Saturday helped several teams while reducing their own chances.
So the chances of reaching the play-offs on Sunday are so far:
1) The loss of CSK on Saturday does not change the fact that it will certainly make the play-offs. His chances of finishing in the top two for points remain at 97%.
2) Like CSK, DC was sure to qualify ahead of Saturday’s games, but beating MI means their chances of finishing in the top two in terms of points are now close to 94%.
3) The loss of KKR on Friday and the loss of MI on Saturday mean the third-placed RCB is now almost certain to qualify. But there are 24 scenarios where they can catch up with more than one other team for third place, which means the chance they will rely on net running rate is less than 5% to get past the group stage. You have a slightly better chance than any third point of getting in the top two.
4) KKR stays in fourth place and losing MI means their chances of getting in the top four for points have increased to nearly 44%. The best they can hope for is a tied third place.
5) MI’s loss also raised hopes for PBKS, who now have a nearly 41% chance of finishing in the top four on points. As with KKR, the best they can hope for is third.
6) RR is currently sixth but like KKR has a 44% chance of finishing in the top four after Saturday’s impressive win against CSK. Another team that can at best reach third place.
7) MI has slipped to seventh place in the table but has a 44% chance of getting into the top four on points like KKR and RR.
8th) Two of CSK, DC and RCB are sure to take the top two spots, while the others are not in the running for those spots. This means that the other four teams that are fighting for the remaining two places with one of these three (CSK, DC, RCB) remain in the race.

How do we get these probabilities?
The process begins by listing all the possible scenarios that are left in relation to the combination of individual game outcomes. On Sunday morning, with 9 games still to play, this means 512 (two options for the first game, each of which has two for the next game, and so on, raising a total of 2 to the 9th or 512). We then look at what each scenario means in terms of the final score for each team and what their rank is (with no NRR which cannot be predicted in advance). The probabilities for each team are then calculated by dividing the number of scenarios it lands in the top four by the total number of possible scenarios, now 512, and multiplying it by 100.
Teams with the same score can have different probabilities depending on what games they have left and how games with other teams affect their final placement.
What playoff opportunities were there at the end of October? Find out HERE.