India's GDP to grow 6.8% in FY25, $7 trillion economy by 2031: CRISIL

India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will moderate to 6.8 per cent in fiscal 2024-25 (FY25) after posting better-than-expected growth of 7.6 per cent this fiscal, as higher interest rates and lower fiscal stimulus Dampening demand Indian rating agency CRISIL.

Nevertheless, India will retain its position as the fastest growing major economy, CRISIL said in a press release.

India's real GDP growth will moderate to 6.8 per cent in FY25 after posting better-than-expected growth of 7.6 per cent in FY24, CRISIL said. Nevertheless, India will retain its position as the fastest growing major economy. Over the next seven fiscal years, the economy will cross the $5 trillion mark and be close to $7 trillion with an estimated average annual growth of 6.7 percent.

The fiscal stimulus will be lower as the fiscal deficit needs to be reduced to 5.1 percent of GDP in the next fiscal as per the forecast glide path. However, the nature of government spending will support the investment cycle and rural incomes to some extent.

Inflation moderated this fiscal due to falling input costs and weaker domestic demand. CRISIL expects the slowdown to continue in the next fiscal due to healthier agricultural production curbing food inflation and favorable oil and commodity prices.

Growth momentum will continue this decade, bringing significant private investment in emerging sectors, sustained government spending on infrastructure development, ongoing reforms and efficiency gains through increasing digitalization and physical connectivity, CRISIL noted.

“In the next seven fiscal years, the Indian economy will cross the $5 trillion mark and will be close to $7 trillion with an estimated average annual growth of 6.7 percent. By FY2031, India will be the No. 3 economy and an upper-middle income country, which will have a positive impact on domestic consumption,” said Amish Mehta, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, CRISIL.

“India's manufacturing sector is in a good position due to high capacity utilization in key sectors, opportunities from global supply chain diversification, push for infrastructure investments, green transition imperative and lenders' strong balance sheets. Continuous reforms, improved global competitiveness and value chain development will increase the share of manufacturing in India's GDP beyond the forecast 20 percent in FY2031,” he added.

CRISIL's analysis shows that industrial investment will grow to ₹6.5 lakh crore (~$78.58 billion) per annum on average between FY2024 and 2028, compared to ₹3.9 lakh crore (~$47.146 billion) dollars) in the previous five financial years.

Geopolitical uncertainties, global debt, uneven economic recovery, climate change and technological disruptions will create challenges in the short and medium term. However, growth will be supported by domestic structural factors and cyclical levers, CRISIL added.

Overall, there is justifiable optimism about India given its resilience and tremendous growth opportunities.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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