India's economic development suggests that the country will reach middle-income status by 2036

India is considered the fastest growing economy among G20 developing countries and aims to transition to a developed economy by 2047. According to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), the current estimated GDP of $3.6 trillion in FY2024 could pave the way for India to move into the upper middle income category between FY33 and FY36 (Pro- capita income $4,466-$13,845) and reach the milestone of a $15 trillion economy by FY47.

However, Ind-Ra has put forward an ambitious estimate for the country to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, depending on certain factors.

Dr. Sunil Kumar Sinha, Senior Director and Chief Economist at Ind-Ra, highlighted the crucial role of real GDP growth, inflation (GDP deflator) and INR/USD exchange rate in shaping India's economic development.

“The future path of the Indian economy as estimated by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) at $3.6 trillion in FY24 will depend on the speed at which real GDP growth, inflation ( GDP deflator) and the INR/USD exchange rate develop,” Sinha said.

“We expect the Indian economy to enter the upper-middle income category (per capita income $4,466-$13,845) in FY33-36 and a $15 trillion economy in FY43-47 under various scenarios will,” Sinha added.

Ind-Ra's ambitious estimate of reaching $30 trillion by FY47 requires a significant annual growth rate of 9.7% in current USD calculations from FY24 to FY47, historical data from the last 50 years shows , that maintaining such a high growth rate over a decade is rare, with only two cases in 1973–1982 and 2003–2012.

While India is experiencing robust economic growth, global trade challenges and protectionist measures adopted by developed economies since fiscal 2012 pose potential obstacles. Increasing trade fragmentation and climate-related policy shifts complicate India's path to the $30 trillion target 2047 additionally.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the $30 trillion target, Ind-Ra's estimates suggest that India's per capita income could be between $9,218 and $9,920 between FY43 and FY47. This forecast puts India close to the $13,846 per capita threshold for high-income countries.

Beyond economic indicators, Ind-Ra identifies key factors influencing India's economic development, including the energy transition, low-carbon manufacturing/services and the expansion of the middle class. India's commitment to the energy transition, demonstrated at the COP26 summit, positions the country as a major player in renewable energy, with ambitious targets such as 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 and achieving a net-zero economy by 2070.

The focus on low-carbon products and services, such as India's first stainless steel production facility based on a green hydrogen plant, commissioned in March 2023, is expected to contribute significantly to India's growth.

In addition, the rising incomes and demanding lifestyles of the middle-income class are identified as the main drivers of demand for goods and services. According to People Research on India's Consumer Economy, the middle class population is expected to grow significantly, reaching 715 million in 2030-31 and 1.02 billion in 2046-47.

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