Indian GDP to register 6.4% growth in Q3 FY24: BOB

India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.4 percent in the third quarter of fiscal 2023-24, driven by subdued growth in the industrial and agricultural sectors, said a report by state-owned mortgage lender Bank of Baroda (BOB) on Friday. “A slower economic growth of 6.4 per cent is forecast for the third quarter of FY2024 compared to 7.6 per cent growth in the second quarter of FY24, driven by subdued growth in the agriculture and industrial sectors. The services sector is expected to boost growth,” economist Jahnavi Prabhakar said in a report.

Prabhakar stated that while economic growth in the third quarter of FY24 was slightly slower than the second quarter, it varied across sectors, with some recording more robust growth than others. The estimate for the full year is 6.8 percent. Looking ahead to FY25, growth is expected to be at a similar level of 6.75 to 6.8 percent, Prabhakar added.

The IMF forecast that the Indian economy will grow by 6.7 percent in the current fiscal year, an improvement of 40 basis points over its previous forecast of October 2023. For both FY24 and FY25, the economy is expected to grow by 6.5 percent, driven by “domestic demand resilience.”

“On the other hand, the World Bank expects the economy to register growth of 6.3 percent in FY24 and 6.4 percent in FY25, led by strong domestic demand, increasing infrastructure spending and robust private sector credit growth,” Prabhakar said.

Contrary to these forecasts, according to the NSO preliminary estimates, the economy is expected to grow by 7.3 percent in the current financial year. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has estimated the country's growth at 7 percent in FY2024, with growth rates for the third quarter of FY24 and fourth quarter of FY24 forecast at 6.5 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

Growth of 7 per cent is forecast for FY25, with downside risks arising from escalation in geopolitical tensions and volatility in financial markets, Prabhakar's statement said. Recently, rating agency ICRA said that India's GDP is expected to grow at 6 percent in the third quarter of fiscal 2024 compared to 7.6 percent in the second quarter of fiscal 2024.

Also Read: India's business activity rises to 7-month high in February on robust demand

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