India is forecast by the IMF as the fastest growing country in the world, twice that of China

The IMF said India’s economy is expected to grow 8.2 percent this year, compared with the 4.4 percent tied to China. But that estimate slipped to 7.2 percent after some further calculations this Wednesday (4/5).

But according to India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, he said India’s growth is expected to be between 7 and 8.5 percent despite global uncertainty.

“The range of results is quite wide. Bigger than it should be, and that makes decision making more dangerous. It takes a lot of luck to get it right,” he said in an interview. economic timesThursday (5.5.).

India’s economy is expected to grow 8-8.5 percent at the start of the fiscal year on April 1, according to the Economic Survey by the Indian Treasury.

However, economists warn that the uncertainty created by the Ukraine crisis poses a major challenge to maintaining this momentum as India, like any other country, grapples with high fuel and food prices.

Another challenge for India is uneven economic growth. While jobs and incomes are picking up again in some industries like IT, the millions who lost their livelihoods during the pandemic are still struggling.

“The evidence is pretty clear that some economic sectors are growing much faster than others,” said Ravi Srivastava, director of the Center for Employment Studies at the Institute for Human Development in New Delhi. VOAWednesday (4/5).

“There are clear consequences of this, namely employment and income are still not recovering. Only a small part benefits,” he added.

As it turns out, while the IT sector is said to have benefited most from the impact of the pandemic, it has seen a turnover rate of more than 20 percent in recent months.

That is, 20 percent of the employees of the company in question have stopped working there and will not be replaced by new employees.

In terms of employment in India, the formal sector accounts for only about 10 percent of jobs there.

Most livelihoods are created in the country’s vast informal sector, which has been hit hard during the pandemic.

The good news is that India is seeing signs of a revival in informal employment as cities lift all restrictions. Small shopkeepers told taxi drivers their work is now resuming.

Dhan Singh Negi, who makes a living leasing his cars to a company, said around 80 percent of pre-pandemic businesses had been revived in recent months.

“I usually pick up my corporate clients from the airport and take them through the city. In the last two months, our conditions have been good,” said Negi.

Negi has returned to his village after nearly a year, just like the other 100 million overseas workers who returned to their villages when urban jobs dried up at the start of the pandemic two years ago.

Now all segments of the Indian economy are back on track and most offices are beginning to attract staff. It happens both in the office and in personal business.

There is also public transport infrastructure such as flights, trains and buses that are now overcrowded, suggesting economic activity is doing well.

Although the economic recovery looks smooth, the number of job seekers under poverty reduction programs remains high, a sign of ongoing pressures, economists say.

More than 253 million households were registered last year, according to government data as of April this year, significantly more than the 186 million in 2019 before the pandemic.

Then, recalling Negi’s story, the number of workers in the agricultural sector also skyrocketed as the nomads working in the city returned to their small farms. The Indian government calls it “reverse migration”.

“The data shows that a large percentage of those who have left their regular job are engaged in some form of informal self-employment,” said Srivastava, an economist in India.

“So the quality of work is worse today than it was two years ago and there is an upsurge in rural entrepreneurship.”

So you can say rebound This Indian economy means different things to different people and economic institutions.

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