India from the Abyss of Recession, Indonesia When?

Liputan6.com, Jakarta India managed to escape the brink of recession after its economy grew positively in the fourth quarter of 2020. Bollywood’s gross domestic growth (GDP) rose 0.4 percent in the final quarter of last year, thanks in part to the relaxation of social restrictions (lockdown), which then sparked an increase in domestic consumption.

So can Indonesia, which in terms of GDP is still growing negatively by 2.19 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, try to imitate India?

The Senior Economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, Piter Abdullah Redjalam, believes Indonesia need not follow India’s example. This is because the economic and cultural characteristics of the people of these two countries are different.

“Enforcement of health protocols, for example. The Indian government is very strict and strict. We can’t do the same, ”said Piter Liputan6.com, Saturday (February 27th, 2021).

However, Piter added that there are few things that the Indonesian government of India can emulate. Like the decision to relax the restrictions so the wheels of the economy can run.

“For example, the government can relax PPKM to boost the economy, but on the other hand, it is more rigorous to emphasize community discipline in conducting health procedures and implementing 3T and 3M,” he added.

According to him, the economic improvement in the fourth quarter of 2020 will not only happen in India. Several other countries have succeeded, mainly driven by policies of easing restrictions on social and economic activities.

“This easing will then restore household consumption, which is the engine of the economy. Although it is still shrinking, Indonesia’s growth is also showing a direction for improvement, ”Piter said.

Even so, Piter estimates that economic growth in countries that have escaped the recession, such as India, will not accelerate immediately in the first quarter of 2021. The Covid-19 pandemic is currently still the main enemy.

“I think the economic improvement will be slowed down by the pandemic, which actually escalated in January 2021. India’s economy will return to normal in the second quarter (2021), assuming the pandemic gradually subsides, ”he said.

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President Jokowi urged Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar Panjaitan to maintain investment growth so that it does not drop below 5 percent. This should boost Indonesia’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2020.