India Economy Watch – Real GDP growth exceeds 8% for third consecutive quarter: Motilal Oswal

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Real gross domestic product growth was much higher than expected at 8.4% in the third quarter of fiscal 2024, compared to 8.1% (revised upward from 7.6%) in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 and 4.3% in Q3FY23 (revised downward from 4.8%). GDP growth in the first quarter of FY24 was also revised upwards to 8.2% from 7.8%. Consequently, GDP growth for 9MFY24 stood at 8.2%. The better-than-expected GDP growth was partly due to a downward revision in the third quarter of FY23 (to 4.3% from 4.8% previously) and very high growth in real net indirect taxes driven by lower subsidies.

Details suggest that the better growth is almost entirely due to investments (12.2% in Q3FY24, the highest in six quarters versus 2.8% in Q3FY23).

On the other hand, private consumption growth remained weaker at 3.5% year-on-year in Q3FY24 compared to 1.8%/2.4% in Q3FY23/Q2FY24. At the same time, government consumption contracted by 3.2% in the third quarter of FY2024, compared to a growth of 7.1% in the third quarter of FY23. However, the discrepancies contributed to real GDP growth of 3.5% in the third quarter of FY2024, which is due to the authorities' limited ability to allocate GDP across consumption and investment, rather than casting doubt on overall GDP growth.

India's investment ratio rose to 31.9% of GDP in the third quarter of FY2024, better than 30.7% of GDP in the third quarter of FY23. India's net imports stood at 2.8% of GDP in the third quarter of FY2024, compared at 3.9% in Q3FY23. Consequently, domestic savings are likely to have increased to 29.1% of GDP in Q3FY24 from 26.9% of GDP in Q3FY23.

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