Goldman Sachs forecasts India's economy will grow 6%, outperforming China and Indonesia, JAKARTA – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted this economic growth India could exceed 6% for the rest of the decade, leading to more investment from China in the South Asian country.

Quote Bloomberg, On Friday (02/16/2024), Goldman Sachs economist Santanu Sengupta said India's long-term growth potential could be higher towards 6.5% or even slightly higher.

Meanwhile, India's demographics, high government spending and healthy domestic demand make India a profitable investment destination of the future.

For the avoidance of doubt, this growth potential is an estimate of the rate at which the economy can grow without experiencing excessive inflation.

The governor of India's central bank in January 2024 estimated the country's potential growth rate at about 7%.

Goldman Sachs also estimates that the Indian private sector will accelerate its investments after the national elections. The companies are also believed to have aggressively reduced their debt and their balance sheets are among the cleanest seen in India in the last 20 years.

Indonesia's Rival Countries

Based on notes Business, India and Vietnam are highly attractive countries, meaning they can become competitors for Indonesia in attracting investors, particularly in Asia.

“These (India and Vietnam) are two countries that, if we look at the real investment side, are quite competitive with Indonesia,” Bank Permata chief economist Josua Pardede explained in the Indonesia Economic Review 2023 on Wednesday (7/2/2024).

Looking at the fundamental outlook since the last pandemic, various rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings, Moody's and Fitch Ratings still maintain Indonesia's rating reviews Investment grade.

Josua also believes that Indonesia has remained accommodative in terms of monetary and fiscal policies over the past two to three years. It is hoped that this can also be guaranteed Trust level for foreign investors.

He believes that the implementation of the implementing provisions of the Job Creation Law requires attention, considering Indonesia's vision that growth must be above 5%, namely around 6-7% in 2045.

“Therefore, optimizing investments, of course with the job creation law, is a good starting point,” he said.

That being said, it remains to be seen how the regulations will be implemented, apart from tax reform and other reforms.

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