JAKARTA – The trend in the development of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia just passed the second wave or peak of the pandemic last July. In the meantime the development of the world case is experiencing a third wave or a third climax, the curve of which is slowly rising.

The spokesman for the COVID-19 Task Force, Prof. Wiku Adisasmito, said that Indonesia’s current development, which is fairly under control, needs to be optimally sustained. So that Indonesia does not enter the third wave, as experienced by several countries.

“Our big task now is to maintain this sloping curve. There are two important lessons that we have to pay attention to,” said Wiku on Tuesday (14.09.2021) on a press release on the development of COVID-19 at Graha BNPB broadcast on the BNPB Indonesia YouTube channel.

Furthermore, the first thing that is meant is to seriously uphold the health protocols in line with the opening up of the socio-economic activities of the community. Looking at the development of the delta variant, which has been shown to be transmitted faster in both India and Indonesia, this shows that it will take some time for both countries to reach the spike phase.

In India, the delta variant has been around since September 2020, but the peak occurred in April 2021. While the delta variant was discovered in Indonesia in January 2021, the peak occurred in July 2021. This suggests that in cases the spike occurred not only because of the delta variant, but as a result of socio-economic community activities that are not balanced with rigorous procedures.

“If we are able to limit socio-economic activity, the effects of variance will not increase significantly,” he said.

Second, when looking at the pattern of spikes in Indonesia, which is 3 months away from the world and other countries like India, Malaysia and Japan, it is imperative to be vigilant and disciplined about health protocols so as not to follow other countries, the the third wave.

“We can learn from India as the case has been falling in recent months,” Wiku continued.

In addition, Wiku explained the learning outcomes of the peak period that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. The world has seen 3 peaks so far in 2021. They occur in January (first), April (second), and August – September (third).

The country contributing the most positive cases worldwide, the United States is currently experiencing a third wave and the curve is slowly sloping. The pattern of increasing cases in the United States is similar to the pattern of increasing cases in the world. Especially in the increase in January and September 2021.

There’s a small difference that occurs in April 2021, global COVID-19 cases have increased, and the United States has decreased. Japan and Malaysia show a pattern of increases in cases similar to that worldwide, where cases increased three times in January, April and August-September. Japan has lost ground, but Malaysia is still in third place.

The evolution of cases that differs most from other countries is in India, which saw its first surge in cases in September 2020. Where other countries did not experience the first increase. However, in 2021, when other countries were peaking, India actually declined, peaking and spiking in April 2021, becoming the world’s largest contributor to cases.

However, the second high continued to decline and the fall curve is currently flat for 2.5 months in a row. Very different from the world and other countries that have seen an increase in cases.

Looking at the pattern of Indonesia, the peak time of the falls is the same as World Time, the US and Japan, namely January 2021. But when the world hit a second peak in April, Indonesia saw a decline. When Indonesia saw its second peak last July, other countries and the world did not see any surge.

And in September, the case of Indonesia continued to decline, while the case saw a third wave worldwide. The second surge in Indonesia from June to July showed that while Indonesia had a significant increase in cases, it was not a major contributor to the increase in global cases.

The spike in cases in Indonesia was immediately addressed to allow it to return to its current state, where other countries had a third spike. Coupled with the population of Indonesia, which is similar to that of the United States, it turns out that Indonesia is much smaller in the number of daily positive cases and the number of cases per 1 million people. Even this number is still lower than in neighboring countries with smaller populations.

“This good development is to be appreciated. Because it shows the resilience of our nation in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. I thank the community of health workers who are tireless in dealing with patients and the good cooperation of all regional managers, ”concluded Wiku.

Jakarta, September 14, 2021

Communication team of the Committee on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Management and National Economic Recovery

[ISTA/ACU/VJY]