Tanja Lewis: Hello and welcome to COVID, Quickly, a Scientific American Podcast series!

Josh Fischmann: This is your fast track update on the COVID pandemic. We bring you up to date with the latest science behind the most pressing questions about the virus and disease. We demystify the research and help you understand what it really means.

Lewis: I am Tanya Lewis

Fishman: I am Josh Fischman

Lewis: And were Scientific American‘s senior health editor. Today we are discussing whether human behavior or Virus variants led to India’s COVID catastrophe.

Fishman: And we’ll talk about how to understand the CDC’s new mask guidelines and what it means when we get out of the caves we went to last year.

Lewis: The COVID situation in India right now is simply devastating with dead bodies piling up and critical supplies such as oxygen lacking. The big question is, how did it get so bad? Josh, you’ve looked at the two possible culprits. What can you tell us

Fishman: The first thing I can say is that people want to blame new virus variants as one of these culprits, but they are wrong. Experts say the problem stems from what people, not variants, have done in India.

The country rose from 100 to 200 deaths a day in the first few months of this year to a shocking surge in April and May. Around 4,000 people currently die from COVID every day.

And as you say, everyone wants to know why that happened. Many seem eager to blame a new variant. The BBC and other media outlets like to call it “the double mutant” because it sounds scary and has two mutations. But I’ll call it the last three numbers that virologists use to name it: 617. Vaughn Cooper, a University of Pittsburgh microbiologist who tracks these versions of the virus, told me that 617 just isn’t a malicious microbe that does that Land flooded. For example, it has less ability to bypass antibodies than variants that have become dominant in South Africa and Brazil. And it may not be widespread even in India. Cooper says the country is not following these variants very closely.

Ravi Gupta, a microbiologist at the University of Cambridge, ran a small test on 617. He filled the variant with antibodies from nine people who had syringes with the Pfizer vaccine into test tubes. The mutations of the variant did not help him. Antibodies did it. Gupta’s conclusions: Vaccinations work, and this viral version isn’t particularly terrible. And please stop calling it a “double mutant,” he says. Most of the globally common variants now have at least two mutations. It’s a meaningless term.

Lewis: This is fair. But what about vaccines? Could these help contain the increase?

Fishman: Yes you could. But here’s a real problem: India doesn’t have a lot of vaccines. Only about 9 percent of the population got a shot. In the US it’s 45 percent. In Israel there are 60.

India saw a ton of unprotected crowds as of March – tens of thousands of people went to pilgrimages and religious holidays – and huge political rallies: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party launched a campaign of huge events, announcing that his government has defeated the virus. The restrictions on gatherings are gone: no masks, no physical distancing in a country with many people. And now there are 400,000 new infections every day.

The bottom line is that people who huddled together caused this disaster. Variants may play a role – another variant that is rapidly spreading in the UK and US is also in India – but people and politicians started the fire with huge gatherings, apparently thinking the virus was not a risk.

As these sad events develop, you may want to make a donation to help people in India. If you’re that moved, we’ve included a link in the transcript section of our website for this episode listing several organizations that provide medical aid and food:

In the US, the CDC recently announced some new guidelines on when vaccinated people can take off their masks. What do the guidelines say and how should they be interpreted?

Lewis: The new guidelines state that vaccinated people will no longer have to wear masks when exercising outside, meeting in small groups, or dining with friends and family.

This is welcome news for many of us. We know the risk of COVID transmission outdoors is extremely small (although not zero). This is because the virus mainly spreads through airborne droplets or aerosols, which are quickly diluted outside. It’s “like a drop of dye in the ocean,” as Linsey Marr, an aerosol scientist at Virginia Tech, puts it.

The CDC says that unvaccinated or partially vaccinated individuals should continue to wear masks when meeting friends or family outside of their household, and both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals should wear them in crowded settings such as sporting events, parades, or live performances.

Fishman: However, all of these categories are difficult to oversee.

Lewis: Yes, the CDC does not define what qualifies as a “small group” of friends and family because it depends on the context. And it’s a little hard to remember all the different scenarios of when the vaccinated and unvaccinated can congregate and who still has to wear masks.

Still, it is the first step towards returning to some kind of normalcy. But it will feel weird for a while. Many people who have been vaccinated, including myself, find it difficult to open their faces and feel like they are being judged for not wearing a mask. Just a few weeks ago, the same people were judging others for the same behavior. And it’s not that we all wear t-shirts that announce our vaccination status.

But at some point, hopefully enough people will be vaccinated so that we can all feel safe to lower our masks – and our hair – a little.

Now you are up to date. Thanks for joining us.

Fishman: Come back in two weeks for the next episode of COVID, Quickly! And on SciAm.com you will find current and detailed COVID news.