The government expanded the Policy Implementing Micro-Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) from March 23 to April 5, 2021. The expansion of the fourth volume of micro-PPKM has been extended to 15 provinces in Indonesia.

Despite the expansion of restrictions, Senior Economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia Piter Abdullah predicts Indonesia’s economic growth will grow positively in the second quarter of 2021.

“Although there are still micro-PPKMs, I estimate that economic growth in the second quarter will be positive in the range of 0.5 to 1.5 percent,” Piter told Liputan6.com on Wednesday (03/24/2021).

The extrapolation was given because the calculation basis for economic growth in the second quarter of 2021 still relates to the same period of the previous year. As is well known, Indonesia’s economic growth shrank by 5.32 percent in the second quarter of 2020 due to the early phase of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Economic growth in the second quarter of 2020 has shrunk very sharply. The calculation base for the second quarter of 2021 will be lower. Low growth is seen as positive, ”explained Piter.

On the other hand, the basis for calculating economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 must be based on the prior-year period, which was still positive. Piter explained that the economic growth of 2.97 percent in the first quarter of 2020 was used statistically as the basis for the calculation for the first quarter of 2021.

“Because the calculation base is high, it is still lower than in the first quarter of 2020, despite improvements in the first quarter of 2021. This means that economic growth will be negative,” he explained.

This is in line with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati’s forecast that Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 will still shrink negatively in the range of minus 1 percent to minus 0.1 percent.

“I agree with Ms. Sri Mulyani. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 will be better than in the fourth quarter of the previous year, but still negative in the region of minus 1 percent,” said Piter.