ADB corrects Asian economic contractions, China and India become references

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced that the decline in the economies of Asian developing countries would lag behind expectations as they recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

The region’s gross domestic product will shrink by 0.4 percent this year, compared to the September forecast of -0.7 percent. The ADB is sticking to its forecast for regional growth for 2021 of 6.8 percent.

Every part of the region has different perspectives. East Asia will grow this year while other sub-regions will shrink.

China’s economic forecast for 2020 has been raised from 1.8 percent in September to 2.1 percent growth. Meanwhile, the forecast for India rises to an 8 percent decrease from the previous forecast of -9 percent. China’s GDP is expected to grow by 7.7 percent and India’s by 8 percent next year.

The economic forecast for Southeast Asia has been lowered to a decline of 4.4 percent this year due to lower forecasts for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The sub-region remains under pressure as the virus outbreak and containment efforts continue.

“An ongoing pandemic remains a major risk,” said Yasuyuki Sawada, chief economist at the ADB Bloomberg, Thursday (December 10th, 2020).

He went on to say that the safe, effective and timely delivery of vaccines in developing countries will be important to support economic reopening and growth recovery in the region.

Meanwhile, East Asia will see economic growth of 1.6 percent this year, up from a previously estimated 1.3 percent amid the rebound in China and Taiwan.

In the interim Lockdown and movement restrictions have eased, tourism recovery is likely to be delayed. Inflation in emerging Asia is now forecast at 2.8 percent this year due to weak demand and low oil prices, up from the 2.9 percent forecast in September. Consumer prices will rise 1.9 percent next year.

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