India's economy is expected to grow at 7.3 per cent in 2023-24, compared to 7.2 per cent in the previous fiscal, according to the first advance national accounts estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday.
Releasing the first advance estimates of national income for 2023-24, the NSO said, “Real GDP or GDP at constant prices (2011-12) is expected to reach a level of Rs 171.79 lakh crore in 2023-24 as per the provisional.” GDP Estimate for the Year 2022-23 at Rs 160.06 lakh crore published on May 31, 2023.”
According to a statement, real GDP growth is estimated at 7.3 percent in 2023-24 compared to 7.2 percent in 2022-23.
The GDP at current prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 296.58 lakh crore as compared to the provisional GDP estimate of Rs 272.41 lakh crore for the year 2022-23 released on May 31, 2023, it said it.
Nominal GDP growth in 2023-24 is estimated at 8.9 per cent as against 16.1 per cent in 2022-23, it said.
In December 2023, the RBI increased the estimate of India's GDP growth rate from 6.5 percent to 7 percent for the period 2023-2024.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head (research and outreach) at ICRA, said: “The advance estimates released by the NSO project GDP growth in FY2024 at 7.3 per cent, much higher than our estimate of 6.5 per cent. “Implicitly, the NSO assumes that GDP growth will weaken to 7.0% in the second half of fiscal year 2024 from 7.7% in the first half of fiscal year 2024. “Surprisingly, the estimated GVA growth of 6.9 percent for fiscal year 2024 implies that the growth of this metric in the second half of the year was assumed to be 6.2 percent, which is significantly lower than the assumed GDP figure for this period.”
She added that the growth assumed for the second half of fiscal 2024 was quite high given the subdued outlook for agriculture given weak Kharif production and continued delay in Rabi sowing, as well as the feared temporary slowdown in capital expenditure ahead of the general elections . The Indian government's capital expenditure fell 8.8 percent year-on-year in October-November 2023, after rising 43.1 percent in the first half of fiscal 2024.
“The NSO has estimated nominal GDP growth at 8.9 per cent in FY2024, significantly lower than the 16.1 per cent in FY2023, with the slowdown largely due to the reversal in the WPI reading towards deflation from inflation in can be attributed to the previous year.” . Based on the nominal GDP for FY2024 estimated by the NSO, the absolute budgeted fiscal deficit of the Government of India is Rs GDP,” Nayar said.
Meanwhile, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its report “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024” that India continues to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world and its GDP growth is expected to reach 6.2 percent in 2024 .
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