For the past two years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised to transform India into a developed, high-income country by 2047. India is also on the way to becoming one third largest in the world According to several forecasts, the economy will weaken in six years.

High-income economies have per capita gross national income – the total amount earned by a country's people and businesses – of $13,846 (£10,870) or more, according to the World Bank.

With a per capita income of around US$2,400 (£1,885), India is among the lower income earners Middle-income countries. For several years now, many economists have been warning that India's economy could be heading toward a “middle-income trap.”

This happens when a country can no longer easily achieve rapid growth and compete with advanced economies. Economist Ardo Hannson defines it as a situation in which countries “seem to be stuck in a trap where your costs escalate and you lose competitiveness.”

A new World Bank report raises similar concerns. At the current rate of growth, it will take India 75 years to reach a quarter of America's per capita income. World Development Report 2024 says. It also said more than 100 countries – including India, China, Brazil and South Africa – face “serious obstacles” that could hamper their efforts to become high-income countries in the next few decades.

The researchers looked at numbers from 108 middle-income countries, which account for 40% of the world's total economic output – and almost two-thirds of global carbon emissions. They are home to three quarters of the world's population and almost two thirds of those living in extreme poverty.

They say these countries face greater challenges in escaping the middle-income trap. These include the rapidly aging population, increasing protectionism in advanced economies and the urgent need for an accelerated energy transition.

“The battle for global economic prosperity is largely won or lost in middle-income countries,” said Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank and one of the study’s authors.

“But too many of these countries rely on outdated strategies to become advanced economies. They have been dependent solely on investments for too long – or they switch to innovation prematurely.”

For example, the researchers say the pace at which companies can grow is often slow in middle-income countries.

In India, Mexico, and Peru, companies that have been in operation for 40 years typically double in size, while in the United States they grow sevenfold over the same period. This suggests that companies in middle-income countries struggle to grow significantly but still survive for decades. As a result, nearly 90% of companies in India, Peru and Mexico have fewer than five employees, with only a small fraction having 10 or more, the report said.

Mr Gill and his fellow researchers advocate a new approach: these countries must focus on increasing investment, adopting new technologies from around the world and encouraging innovation.

South Korea is an example of this strategy, the report says.

In 1960, per capita income was $1,200 – by 2023 it had risen to $33,000.

Initially, South Korea promoted public and private investment. The 1970s saw a transition to industrial policies that encouraged domestic companies to adopt foreign technologies and advanced production methods.

Companies like Samsung responded. Originally a noodle maker, Samsung began producing televisions for domestic and regional markets by licensing technology from Japanese companies.

This success led to a demand for qualified specialists. The government has increased budgets and set targets for public universities to develop these skills. Today, Samsung is a global innovator and one of the world's largest smartphone manufacturers, the report said.

Countries like Poland and Chile took similar paths, the report says. Poland increased productivity by adopting Western European technologies. Chile promoted technology transfer to spur local innovation and famously adapted Norwegian salmon farming techniques to become a leading salmon exporter.

History provides ample evidence of a looming middle-income trap. Researchers show that as countries become more prosperous, they often fall into a “trap” at around 10% of U.S. GDP per capita ($8,000 today) and are in the middle income range. That's roughly in the middle of what the bank classifies as “middle-income countries.”

Since 1990, only 34 middle-income countries have transitioned to high-income status, with over a third benefiting from integration into the European Union (EU) or newly discovered oil reserves.

Economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba independently estimate that even at a very respectable 4% per capita income growth rate, India's per capita income will only reach $10,000 in 2060, which is below China's current level lies.

“We have to do better. Over the next decade, we will see a potential population dividend, an increase in the proportion of our working-age population, before we succumb to aging like other countries,” they write in their new book, Breaking The Mold: Reimagining India's Economic Future.

“If we can create good jobs for all of our young people, we will accelerate growth and have a chance to move comfortably into the upper middle class before our population begins to age.”

In other words, economists are asking, “Can India get rich before it gets old?”

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